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diff --git a/75418-0.txt b/75418-0.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..03d779d --- /dev/null +++ b/75418-0.txt @@ -0,0 +1,2169 @@ + +*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK 75418 *** + + + + + + Transcriber’s Note + Italic text displayed as: _italic_ + Bold text displayed as: =bold= + + + + +OUROBOROS + + + + + TO-DAY AND TO-MORROW + + _For the Contents of this Series see the end of + the Book_ + + + + + OUROBOROS + + OR + + THE MECHANICAL + EXTENSION OF MANKIND + + + BY + GARET GARRETT + + + LONDON: + KEGAN PAUL, TRENCH, TRUBNER & CO., LTD. + NEW YORK: E. P. DUTTON & CO. + + +_Ouroboros was a fabulous snake, the encircling serpent, that swallowed +its own tail. It represented an infantile thought of the human mind for +wish-fulfilment by magical means. Man’s heroic business was to conquer +the reptile. As he did this he seized the object he most desired. He +might even wish himself into solid gold._ + + +Made and Printed in Great Britain by M. F. Robinson & Co. Ltd. at the +Library Press, Lowest + + + + +CONTENTS + + + PAGE + + I THE QUEST SINCE ADAM 7 + + II THE MACHINE AS IF 23 + + III THE LAW OF MACHINES 31 + + IV WHO MIND THEM OR STARVE 42 + + V THE PARADOX OF SURPLUS 58 + + VI IN PERIL OF TRADE 72 + + VII DIM VISTAS NEW 84 + + + + +OUROBOROS + + + + +I + +THE QUEST SINCE ADAM + + +One story of us is continuous. It is the story of our struggle to +recapture the Garden of Eden, meaning by that a state of existence free +from the doom of toil. + +So long as the character of our economic life was agricultural, as it +almost wholly was until a very recent time, the attack was naïve. In +the file of prayers, if one is kept, the thickest, dustiest bundle is +that of our supplications for plenty—miraculous plenty without worry or +price. We were loth to believe that the second arrangement between God +and Adam made at the gate of exit: + + Cursed is the ground for thy sake; + In the sweat of thy face shalt thou eat bread + +was forever; and for a long time afterward local weather conditions +were wistfully misunderstood, as a chastisement when they were bad and +a sign of relenting when they were good. It was forever. Nature’s ring +was closed, never again to open for any darling fructuary. + +That is to say, man’s taking from the soil is an arbitrary wage. He +may increase the gross of it a little by exerting himself more: the +scale he cannot alter. If tilth for the individual has been made easier +somewhat and more productive by the use of wheeled implements, power +tools and now airplanes to dust the orchard with insecticide, these, +you must remember, represent a tremendous increase of effort by mankind +at large upon the principle of limited fecundity that governs the earth. + +When at length the realistic mind perceived that here was a natural +fact upon which prayers, thanksgiving, sacrifice, idolatry, and the +pretentions of magic were all alike wasted, the spiritual part of us no +doubt had been willing to accept the sentence. Not so the earthy and +lusty part. The curse was heavy. There was never a risk man would not +take, no kind of heroic exertion he would spare himself, to escape the +evil, the boredom, the drudgery of repetitious toil. + +From such puerile motivation came the Age of Discovery, then physical +science, purposeful mechanical invention, the industrial era, and +all the artificial marvels of the modern world. These effects are +historically traceable; and, if it should occur to you to wonder +why they are so much more vivid and astonishing in the West than in +the East, that is easily explained. The European mind went on with +the phantasy of an earthly paradise of plenty and leisure after the +Oriental mind in weariness of wisdom had given it up. + +Until four hundred years ago the Europeans believed that somewhere in +the world was a fabulous land whose inhabitants lived as in dreams, +eating and drinking from golden vessels, wearing priceless jewels like +common beads, sated with ease and luxury. King, courts, astronomers +and navigators believed this. The vulgar fancy was for a place such as +Cockaigne of the medieval ballads, where all features of the landscape +were good to eat or drink and nobody ever was obliged to work. In quest +of this mythical region the pioneer feats of circumnavigation were +performed. + +What a disparity between the character of the motive and the shape of +the dead!—or is it that men do not know their motives? + +The earth was explored. It was found to be round and full of labour. +This, of course, was a terrible disappointment. + +The ceaseless mind then turned to alchemy with the idea that base +metals were changeable into gold; from this came chemistry and the +study of matter and physical phenomena in a new way, taking nothing for +granted. This was the beginning of true Science. As to what might come +of it practically there was at first only the rudest kind of notion. +Dimly it was understood that exact knowledge must somehow increase +man’s power, give him control of the elementary circumstance, enable +him perhaps to command that which hitherto he had got by hazard. When +a great body of fact-knowledge had been accumulated, men began to see +little by little how it might be dynamically applied. Then the epoch of +Mechanical Invention. + +The idea of machines was not new. Long before the beginning of the +Christian era the ancients had produced many wonderful automatic +devices; but mechanical knowledge with them was a department of magic. +The use of machines was to mystify the multitude. Brazen figures were +made to move, dragons to hiss, temple doors to open and close, trees +to emit musical sounds, and lamps to trim themselves perpetually by +means of floats, cogwheels, cylinders, valves, and pistons—all acting +on sound principles of pneumatics and hydraulics. Much of this ancient +technology was lost or forgotten. The European mind rediscovered it +gradually in a spirit of scientific curiosity, with no clear economic +intention. And, but for a simple practical idea, one that was very slow +to come through, the machine no doubt would still be what it anciently +was—an object of superstition, the toy of wonder, an accessory of +priestcraft. + +And what an obvious idea it was!—merely to exploit the machine’s slave +value. Merely to see an engine as a beast of burden and the loom as a +projection of the hand, both instruments of magnified production, to +spare the labour of mankind. + +That moment in which the use of mechanical energy came to be so +conceived was one of elemental significance. All the chances of human +life were altered, though not as anyone supposed or as they were meant +to be. + +The course of internal evolution requires to be imagined. It is slow +beyond perception. It may not be a fact; or, for aught we know, it may +be finished in the species. Suddenly man begins to augment himself by +an external process. His natural powers become extensible to a degree +that makes them original in kind. To his given structure—the weakest +among animal structures in proportion to its bulk—he adds an automatic, +artificial member, responsive only to his contact, answerable only to +his will, uncontrolled by nature, fabulous in its possibilities of +strength, variation, and cunning. + +His use of it in three generations has changed the design of +civilization out of recognition. That change alone which sets our time +off abruptly from all time before is the fact of potential plenty. We +take this for granted as if it were a natural fact, whereas, instead, +all the circumstances have been invented. + +We who are born to the view cannot see it. We cannot imagine what it +was like to live in a world where famine was a frequent visitation and +all things were scarce. Yet never until now has the human race known +what plenty was. Immemorially the word has signified food. + + See, the smell of my son is as the smell of a field the Lord has + blessed. God give thee of the dew of the heaven and the fatness of the + earth and plenty of wine and corn. + +The cornucopia, horn of plenty, never contained a fabricated thing—only +the fruits of the earth. + +That old meaning of the word has been recently lost. Modernly we speak +of ‘goods’; we talk of the standard of living, which is understood +of course to include proper quantities of food, and to mean, besides +food, an endless number of artificial things which people increasingly +require for their comfort and well-being. + +Mechanical energy does not produce food. Nor has the principle of +limited fecundity that governs the earth been suspended. Yet the +machine has enormously increased the food-supply in two ways: first, +agriculture is equipped with power—tools, so that one man now may +perform the labour of many; second, transportation has made all the +food-producing areas of the world accessible, so that grain from the +middle of the North American continent and grain from Argentina are +mingled unawares in the European loaf. + +This use of the machine to distribute food swiftly over the whole world +from where there is a surplus to where that surplus is needed has +had profound political, economic, and social consequences, beginning +with an increase of the human species vastly beyond any number that +had at any time previously existed or could ever before have been +sustained upon the earth. That is the one most awesome phenomenon of +the industrial era. The North American continent has been peopled from +European stock. Its present population is equal to that of all Europe +in 1800. This drain of emigration notwithstanding, the population of +Europe in the same time has trebled. + +And still there is plenty. + +Where it is not actual, it is potential. Who have not plenty are either +too inert or too ignorant to put forth the modern effort. What people +may use, enjoy, and consume now is an _x_ quantity, determined neither +by the rhythms of nature nor any biological principle, but simply by +the free total of their own exertions. + +Faster than the race has multiplied the powers of the machine have +increased. One of these is the power of transportation, whereby the +food product of the whole earth is made uniformly available. The other +power is represented by a divisible product of artificial things +tending to exceed the sum of effective human desire. + +To wishful desire there is no limit whatever; but there is a point at +which the effort necessary to obtain the object—that is, the toil—will +be weighed against the desire to possess it, and only when and if the +object is deemed worth the effort is desire effective in the economic +sense. + +From the paradox mentioned—that tendency of the machine’s divisible +product to overwhelm the sum of effective desire—we get a series +of complex phenomena of which there is nowhere yet a complete +understanding. + +This now is a buyer’s world where formerly it was the seller’s. +Business no longer sits in Asiatic dignity waiting for its customers; +it must up and seek them. The buyer is pursued. + +As I write, the strains of a Liszt rhapsody float through my window. +They come from a farmer’s cottage a little way down the road. Yesterday +a motor-truck stopped at his house and unloaded a self-playing piano. I +saw it and noticed that it got slightly damaged squeezing through the +tiny doorway. + +What does this mean? First, it means that the day before yesterday a +salesman from the city went through this road selling self-playing +pianos for a nominal cash sum down and the balance on monthly +instalments. He sold one there, another in the next house but one, and +a third further on. How many he sold to the end of the road I do not +know. + +But what does it mean that the city sends a man through a country road +in southern New Jersey to sell pianos in this beguiling manner to +people who cannot afford them? Those who bought them I know were all +in debt for other things bought on the instalment plan. It means there +is a necessity to sell this industrial product. It is the necessity of +a factory that has overtaken the normal demand for self-playing pianos +and must force the sale of its surplus. It is the necessity of all who +work in that factory and live thereby. It is the necessity of industry +in general, governed as it is by a principle it did not invent. + +The principle is that the divisible product of the machine is cheap in +proportion to the quantity. Remember that principle. We shall meet it +again. + +As with player-pianos and radio-sets in my country road, so with all +manner of artificial things, with the whole divisible product of the +machine, in every road, every street, every market of the world. How +to produce enough is no longer any problem at all. How to sell what +is increasingly produced—that is the problem. Evidence thereof is the +commonest thing we see. It is painted in the landscape. It illuminates +the cities at night. It is in our marginal vision when we read. There +is no lifting one’s eyes to heaven, no casting them down in shame, no +seeing whatever without seeing it. + +Each day a forest is cut down and consumed for wood-pulp to make the +paper on which producers advertize their wares. The use of advertizing +is to stimulate in people a sense of wanting. Selling is a high +profession to which men are trained in special schools. To exchange +goods for money over a counter, to higgle with the individual +buyer—that is not selling. Clerks and peddlers do that. Selling is +to create new ways of wanting, new habits of comfort and luxury, new +customs of having. This is done by agitating the mass-imagination +with the suggestive power of advertizing. Business reserves its most +dazzling rewards for one who can think of a way to make thousands, +millions, whole races of people want that thing to-day which they knew +not the lack of yesterday. + +Why is this so? Because there is never enough wanting. + +And why is there never enough wanting? Because the divisible product of +the machine tends to increase faster than wanting. + +What advertizing cannot accomplish governments may undertake. There are +backward, inert, idle races that do not want much. They are content +to do with little. It becomes therefore the diplomatic and military +business of the powerful industrial governments to change the ways of +such races. They must be brought forward, modernized, electrified, +taught how to want more. Why? In order that they shall be able to +consume their quota of the machine’s divisible product. Plenty shall be +put upon them. + +There is no limit to that blessing. Those who have it are anxious to +share it, must share it in fact, in order to keep it for themselves, +under the principle that the cheapness of things is in proportion to +the quantity produced. The more the cheaper; the fewer the dearer. + +Are you beginning to suppose that man has found what he sought? Since +in this extraordinary manner he appears to have provided himself with +plenty, shall that dusty bundle of prayers be recalled or sent to the +furnace? + +As to his prayers, they were never frank. Perhaps for that reason he +should wish he had them back. He prayed for plenty; what he secretly +associated with the thought of plenty was leisure—freedom from toil. +And once more he is disappointed, thwarted by his own inventions. +Plenty he has achieved. Toil he has not escaped. + +The machine that was to have been a labour-saving device becomes an +engine of production that must be served. It is as if you could not +save labour at all—as if you could make it only more productive, +thereby achieving an abundance of things with no effect whatever upon +the necessity to perform monotonous labour. All this labour-saving +machinery we live with notwithstanding, never were people more +complaining of their tasks. That might mean only that they were +increasingly conscious of an abating evil; but there is no certainty +that the abatement even where it is noticeable is permanent. The signs +are otherwise. + +In all material respects people are better off than ever before. Their +bodies are more comfortable, their minds are free from the terror +of hunger, they have much more to enjoy and consume and hope for, +because their labour is more richly rewarded in things. See the amazing +quantity and variety of things such as only the rich could once afford +now circulating at the base of the human pyramid. Not necessaries only. +Silks, watches, ornaments, shoes like those of queens and ladies, +plated ware, upholstered furniture, soft beds, besides things that were +formerly non-existent and therefore beyond the reach of kings, sultans +and nabobs, such as electric lights, plumbing, motor-cars. In the +United States a motor-car to every six persons! And still no sign that +the curve of human contentment is rising; no sign that the curse of +toil will ever be got rid of. + +Instead of saving labour the machine has multiplied it. True, the hours +of industrial labour are fewer than they were, e.g. now eight where +they were ten and twelve a day; but this is merely to compare worse +with better where better is, and that is not everywhere. For a proper +contrast compare the industrial with the idyllic task. Even eight +hours of labour a day continuously performed by the industrial worker +represents a much greater sum of annual effort than his ancestor put +into the soil. Consider also how the machine, directly or indirectly, +has laid new work upon races hitherto naively existing in a state of +nature. + +The riddle is that industrial civilization, having created to its +unknown ends a race of mechanical drudges, requires nevertheless a +contribution of human toil more intense, more exacting, more irksome +than ever. As toil it is more productive—there is more to consume. Life +has been expanded. It is safer. Physically it is inconceivably richer. +Was that the goal? What else is gained? + +You would think that when man had found a way to provide himself with +artificial things in unlimited plenty and a way at the same time to +spread the food supply evenly over the face of the earth, the gift +of universal peace might follow. Never was the peace more frail; and +this, as we shall see—the frailty of the peace—is also a product of the +machine. + +What force is this by fumbling found that man has put in motion? Its +pulsations he controls; its consequences so far have controlled him, +and modern life has become so involved in a mechanical spiral that we +cannot say for certain whether it is that we produce for the sake of +consumption or consume for the sake of production. + + + + +II + +THE MACHINE AS IF + + +Either the machine has a meaning to life that we have not yet been able +to interpret in a rational manner or it is itself a manifestation of +life and therefore mysterious. We have seen it grow. We know it to be +the exterior reality of our own ideas. Thus we are very familiar with +it, as with our arms and legs, and see it in much the same way—that is +to say, imperfectly and in some aspects not at all. Certainly it would +look very different if for a moment we could see it from an original +point of view with the eye of new wonder. + +Fancy yourself a planetary tourist come visiting here, knowing +beforehand neither God nor man, unable therefore to distinguish +intuitively between their works. + +Would you not think the machine that spins silk threads by the ton +from cellulose more wonderful than the silkworm similarly converting +the mulberry leaf in precious quantities, or a steel ship more amazing +than a whale? What of the mechanical beast with a colorless fluid in +its tail and a flame in its nose that runs sixty miles an hour without +weariness? Would it not seem superior in many ways to the horse that +goes forty miles in a day and falls down? + +Suppose, moreover, that you know the tongue of men and are able to ask +them questions. You ask particularly about the automobile, which you +have mentally compared with the horse; whereupon they take you to the +factories in Detroit to see the automobile in process of becoming, +under conditions of mass-production, two or three taking life with a +snort every minute. In this factory, they tell you, they make only one +hundred a day, very fine ones; but in another they make five hundred, +and in another five thousand a day. + +You ask them who makes the horse. + +They do not know. They teach their children to say God makes it. The +horse is a natural thing. + +Then the automobile is an unnatural thing? + +They say no, smiling a little. Not an unnatural thing. The automobile +is a mechanical thing because they make it themselves. + +You ask them why they say they make it. + +At this they are distressed. There has been some slip of understanding +in the use of language. They explain it carefully. The horse is born. +There is no horse-factory. The automobile is made, as you have seen, in +factories. + +Still it is not explained. You argue it with them. What is it they do +in the factory? They perform certain acts in relation to automobiles. +These, of course, are necessary, vital acts. If they were not +performed, automobiles could not be. And yet, how does this prove they +make automobiles? You ask them. + +They ask you to say what else it could prove. + +You may say it proves only that they are fathers of automobiles; and, +since they seem mystified greatly by this answer, you remind them that +in relation to their own children also they perform certain vital acts, +essential to beget them and without which children could not be, yet +they are never heard to say they make children. They say children are +born. + +This has to be left as it is. Further explanations lead to worse +confusion. + +You ask them certain other questions. How long have they been on the +earth—themselves? How long have they had machines? What did they do +before they had machines? + +By their replies certain facts are established in your mind, and from +these facts you make certain deductions, all clear enough to you but +incomprehensible to them. + +The facts are as follows: People have been here on the earth a very +long time, millions of years they think. Machines they have had +for only a very short time, or, as you now see them, for only two +generations. Before they had machines nearly everyone tilled the soil. +There was no industry save handicraft. In the space of one hundred +years these conditions have so remarkably changed that now only half +the people are required to till the soil; the other half live by +industry. This does not mean what you thought at first; it does not +mean that half the fields have been abandoned so that half the people +might go into industry. You are careful to get this straight, for +it is very important. On the contrary, since machines appeared whole +new continents of land have been opened to cultivation. This was +necessary in order to feed the industrial workers who live in cities, +far off from fields, and buy their food, whereas formerly everyone +generally speaking produced his own food, even the people of what once +were called cities going forth seasonally to till and reap the earth. +Actually, the number of people engaged in agriculture has greatly +increased; yet it is only half the population where before it was the +whole of it. What does this mean? It means that since the advent of +machines the human race has enormously increased in number; it has so +increased that the half of it which now is agricultural is greater +than the whole of it was before. The new, non-agricultural half is the +industrial part: it is the part that serves machines. + +This fact is so astonishing that you wish to verify it. You ask them +what would happen if all the machines in the world should vanish +suddenly away. Their answer is that half the people living would perish +in a week. And that is what you thought. + +What may you deduce from these facts? + +First, you will be amused that people are so naïve as to think they +make machines. Then you may say there are two kinds of people here, +agricultural and industrial. The earth makes one kind; machines make +the other. And you will feel as sure of this as if you had proved it +to your senses when you have looked at a typical industrial city where +people live densely in compacted habitations with no visible errand on +earth but to run to and fro tending the machines that hum night and +day in the factories. Those tall, cylindrical, erupting forms called +smokestacks will appear to you as generative symbols. If they were not +there, neither would the people be there. Not only would the people +not be there. They would be nowhere. They could never have existed. If +the smokestacks disappeared, so would all these people, the industrial +part of the population, leaving only the agricultural part—the part +belonging to the soil—as it was before. + +As a planetary tourist, you may be at least as certain these thoughts +are true as men are that they are untrue; and even if they were true +that would make no difference really. The problems are practical. We +must think of machines as machines act, logically. + +One difficulty is that whereas the machine is automatically, unerringly +logical, and nothing else, man has only a little logic; he has, +besides, emotions, sentiments, instincts. In his unlogical character he +has often opposed himself to the machine, meaning to destroy it. At the +opening of the Liverpool and Manchester Railway, the first railroad in +Great Britain and the first in the world, the anti-machine feeling of +British craftsmen was dramatically symbolized by a lone weaver seated +at a loom on a high hill. England was the industrial machine’s first +habitat on earth. There fanatical men led mobs against it. + +Frail and clumsy as it was at first, its life was indestructible. And +now man would not dare destroy it if he could. His own life is bound +up with it. Steadily it has grown more powerful, more productive, more +ominous. It has powers of reproduction and variation which, if not +inherent, are yet as if governed by an active biological principle. +Machines produce machines. Besides those from which we get the +divisible product of artificial things, there are machines to make +machines, and both kinds—(both the machines that make machines and +those that transform raw materials into things of use and desire)—obey +some law of evolution. + +Compare any kind of machine you may happen to think of with what its +ancestor was only twenty-five years ago. Its efficiency has doubled, +trebled; its shape has changed; and, as it is in the animal kingdom so +too with machines, suddenly a new species appears, a sport, a freak, +with no visible ancestor. + +Man’s sense of material power within his environment has increased +proportionately. It is colossal. Benefits such as formerly he would +have thought beyond supernatural agency if he could have imagined +them at all he now confers upon himself. More without end presents +only technical difficulties. No physical circumstance forbids him. +Nevertheless the fact, and only the more strange it is, that for +reasons which he names economic or political he seems powerless to +inform the augmenting body of machine phenomena with a rational or +benign spirit. + + + + +III + +THE LAW OF MACHINES + + +No longer do we speak of machines. They are too numerous and too +different. We speak of industrial equipment, which means machine-power +in general. + +As you may know, the industrial equipment of the world is increasing by +terrific momentum. The machine is spreading over the face of the earth +like an idea new truth. And this is so notwithstanding the fact that +the industrial equipment already existing in the world is so great that +if for one year it were worked at ideal capacity the product could not +be sold for enough to pay the wages of labour, to say nothing of the +cost of material, overhead charges, or profit. Markets would be glutted +with goods. Producers would be ruined. + +It follows that the pressing anxiety of industry is how to regulate and +limit production in order not to overwhelm its markets. Its chronic +nightmare is overproduction, meaning a quantity of divisible products +in excess of the immediate sum of effective desire. Hence combines, +pools, rings, cartels, committees, and associations of manufacturers, +which the courts are powerless to prevent even where they are forbidden +by law. These are a vital measure of mutual preservation. Yet they are +but protocols of truce. They very soon break down and have to be made +all over again. + +Control of production, save here and there for a little while, is +a myth. It could be managed only in case there was a monopoly of +machine-power. Once there was. There is no longer, and never will +be again. Industrial production, taking it broadly, increases in an +uncontrollable manner. + +The evidence is notorious, first in the efforts of national industry to +increase the sale of goods in its own country, and then in the strife +among industrial nations for access to foreign markets. + +A steam calliope jamming its way through the crowded street of New York +City to advertize a new model of a popular motor-car at a reduced price +is a spectacle to bear reflection. It is a symptom of saturation in +the home market. When Henry Ford was making only a thousand cars a day, +he did not advertize. There was a ready cash-demand for the whole of +his product. When his output passed five thousand cars a day, he began +to advertize on billboards and to sell on the instalment plan. + +As the natural cash-demand for a thing is overtaken, it begins to be +pressed for sale on credit. At this point finance steps in. Credit +companies with millions of capital are formed expressly for the purpose +of lending buyers the money with which to buy. Desire shall be made +effective. Selling on credit in this manner has latterly and suddenly +assumed such proportions as to represent in the affair of business a +new pattern. Some old-fashioned minds have been debating it as an evil. +They attack it on the ground that it betrays the virtue of thrift. But +thrift has ceased to be a virtue. To consume—to consume more and more +progressively—to be able to say in the evening “I have consumed more +to-day than I consumed yesterday”, this now is a duty the individual +owes to industrial society. + +For see what would happen if people all over the world should return of +a sudden to the former ways of thrift—to the habit of doing without? +There would be depression in industry. Machines would stop. Millions +who tend them would be disemployed. Nothing would be safe, not even +your own money, for there would be panic on the exchange and trouble at +the bank. + +One is not speaking of the United States alone. The multiplication of +things is greater here than anywhere else because we make machines +faster and work them harder; but you will find the same necessity +acting also in France, the very cradle of thrift, where now cheap +motors are sold on credit: anyone who will buy may borrow the money to +buy with. Why is this in France? To stimulate the motor habit? To serve +a private profit-motive? The habit will follow; the profit may. But +there is another reason, touching foreign trade, which we are coming to +elucidate. + +In order to sell abroad, an industrial nation must be able to produce +cheaply. To produce cheaply, it must produce in large quantities by +a multiple method called mass-production. And you can safely manage +this mass-production only provided you have a fairly large and constant +base of domestic demand. So the sale of French motor-cars in France, +though it be on credit, must be large enough to support the method +of mass-production, for otherwise France would be unable to meet the +competition of Ford, who now exports motor-cars to Europe—even builds +them there. Then the British manufacturers, to meet the competition of +both France and Ford, also undertake against their genius to produce +motor-cars by the quantity method, and, having achieved the method, +their next dilemma is what to do with the product. They advertize at +home to create a popular motor-car habit and at the same time press +their cars for sale in foreign markets, even in France and Germany, as +these countries press theirs for sale in Great Britain. + +Competition among industrial nations to exploit one another’s internal +markets is but one profile of all that dangerous activity taking place +in the name of foreign trade. The industrial powers holding their feet +in China’s doorway and France fighting the native in Morocco are other +aspects of the same thing. China so long as possible shall be an open +market for the surplus product of western machines; there shall be more +wanting in Morocco. + +The industrial equipment of the world meanwhile goes on increasing, +though it is already so great that its capacity cannot be fully +utilized. In the United States alone there is probably enough surplus +machine-capacity to satisfy the whole demand of Great Britain’s +foreign customers for staple merchandise, such as textiles, iron and +steel manufacturers, rubber tires, motor-cars, electrical apparatus, +machinery, glass, garments, shoes, cutlery, and so on. Great Britain +not only has a surplus of machine-power; she has besides an excess of +man-power represented by say one and one-quarter millions unemployed. +She could easily take on the entire foreign trade of France; but in +France also there is a surplus of machine-power. Both Great Britain +and France dread the competition of Germany, whose production of goods +with her existing equipment could be increased, under incentive, nobody +knows how much. + +The exterior facts do not make sense. They represent industry to be +witless, in that, while dreading surplus as the evil that devoureth +profit, it is at the same time bent to push supply to a point beyond +saturation. Industry does not do this. Necessity does it. There is an +interior fact. The tendency of the divisible product of machines to +exceed the sum of effective desire is the last thing that industry +wishes for. It is owing to a principle hitherto mentioned, namely, the +principle that the cheapness of things is in proportion to the quantity +produced. Which now is to be explained. + +It is the economic function of the machine to cheapen production. There +is otherwise no point to it. But, if we say things are more cheaply +made by machine than by hand, we speak very loosely. What we mean is +that a quantity of things is more cheaply made by machine than by hand. + +For example, the cost of a single yard of cloth produced by machine is +hundreds of times greater than the cost of a single yard of it produced +by hand. Obviously, the power-loom is a very costly piece of machinery +to build, and so is the engine that drives it. If you produced on +a power-loom only the amount of cloth a weaver could make by hand, +nobody could afford to buy it. But when you produce on the power-loom a +quantity of cloth one hundred times greater than a weaver can make by +hand, then, of course it is much cheaper. And the more you produce the +cheaper it is. So with anything. The greater the quantity, the lower +the cost. Hence the terms quantity, or mass-production, meaning, first, +to standardize the product, as to make it all black, all one texture, +all one width or shape, and then to bring a chain of machine-power +continuously to bear upon its multiple production. + +Observe the working of this principle. Take watches. At one time they +were made by hand, slowly, laboriously, in stances being not uncommon +of a craftsman spending half his lifetime to make a very fine one. +Under these conditions watches are rare and costly. Only the very +rich can buy them. Suddenly they began to be made by machines. A very +good watch can be made for fifty dollars. There are a million people +who want watches at that price. This is an original demand, a kind of +vacuum, represented by a million people who have never had watches +and now for the first time may possess them. Watches cannot be made +fast enough to meet this want. The industry, for that reason, expands +very fast. Then all at once the demand is satisfied. The million have +watches. The vacuum has been filled. Hereafter the demand will tend +to be static: it will increase slowly as the population increases or +as people in general grow richer, little by little. The watch-making +industry, therefore, is depressed. It has to limit production. Now +comes someone with the idea that by carrying the machine method further +a watch can be made for ten dollars. There are twenty million people +who can afford to buy watches at that price. The ten-dollar watch +appears. The demand again is like a vacuum, twenty times greater than +the first. For a while ten-dollar watches cannot be made fast enough. +The makers of fifty-dollar watches throw away their old machines, +install new ones, increase their production, reduce their costs, +and not only make what was a fifty dollar watch for twenty-five but +contribute also, in a competitive manner, to the supply of ten-dollar +watches. Suddenly what happened before happens again. The twenty +million have watches. The vacuum is filled. Then someone says: “But +there are one hundred million who would buy watches at two dollars”. +So the process is repeated, still lower in the pyramid. The two-dollar +watch is not a fine watch, but it will keep time; and as you would +know, with the improvement that has taken place in machine practice the +cost of making any kind of watch, even the finest, has been greatly +reduced. A watch ceases to be a luxury or a token of caste. It is a +necessary part of man’s personal equipment, all the way down to the +base of the pyramid. + +There you have the cycle. The use of the machine is to cheapen the +cost of production. The sign is quantity. When the supply at a given +price has overtaken the effective demand you have either to idle your +machinery, in which case your cost of production will rise, or open a +wider demand at a lower price. To lower the price and keep a profit you +have to cheapen the cost of production still more. This you can do only +by increasing the quantity, which again overtakes the demand, creating +again the same necessity to cheapen the cost by increasing the quantity +in order to be able to make a lower price for greater demand. Thus +supply pursues demand, downward through the social structure. + +There is at last a base to the pyramid—its very widest point. When that +is reached—what? Well, then you need bazaars in a foreign sun, heathen +races of your own to train up in the way of wanting the products of +your machines, new worlds of demand. You turn to foreign trade. And +if you are an aggressive country that has come late to this business, +as Germany was, and find that most of the promising heathen races are +already adopted and that all the best bazaar-sites are taken, you may +easily work yourself into a panic of fear and become a menace to the +peace. + + + + +IV + +WHO MIND THEM OR STARVE + + +What is it you will fear? That you will be unable to sell away the +surplus product of your machines? That industry will be unable to make +a profit? + +No. The fear is that you will starve. Your machines have called into +existence millions of people who otherwise would not have been born—at +least, not there in that manner. These millions who mind machines are +gathered in cities. They produce no food. They produce with their +machines artificial things that are exchanged for food. It is usually +the case, too, that they have to buy the raw materials on which +their machines act, as Great Britain buys raw cotton from the United +States and Egypt, and wool from Australia, to feed her great textile +industries; having manufactured this material, she sends it forth again +as cloth, to be exchanged for wheat in Canada or beef in South America. + +As you begin with machines your population divides. It becomes part +rural and part industrial, and so long as the rural part of it +can feed the industrial part there is no trouble. But a time soon +comes when the need of the industrial workers for sustenance is +greater than the native production of food. This time inevitably +comes because the machines call up people so rapidly. Then you +have to look abroad for food. That means you have to go into other +countries—peasant-countries—where there is a surplus of meat and grain, +and exchange there your manufactured goods for food. And you begin to +think and speak of your economic necessity. + +There is no such necessity really. To assert it is to say a +preposterous thing, namely, that when your industrial population has +increased beyond the native food-supply, to a point at which you are +out of balance, you are obliged to import food so that your industrial +population may continue to increase and your cities to grow and your +necessity to become greater and greater in an endless spiral. + +It cannot be endless. One of two things will determine the sequel. +Either presently the resources of those peasant-nations that produce a +surplus of food will be exhausted or they will in time think to become +industrial nations, too, and eat their own surplus. There is no lucid +reason why a population should not disperse as it begins to exceed the +native food-supply—that is to say, migrate to the sources of food. + +In this new political dogma of an absolute economic necessity to +import food and raw materials in exchange for manufactures the ancient +myth-wish reappears. The machine does not abolish the curse of toil. It +was not the escape men sought. But it does create a preferred task. + +Traditionally, the peasant-task has been despised: it bore the curse +direct. And, when the machine made it possible for many to embrace +instead what was deemed the lesser affliction of industrial labour +gregariously performed in cities, the impulse thereto was headlong. + +Hence the rise of that angular phenomenon called the industrial +nation—a nation able to buy its food, therefore delivered from the fate +of peasantry and for that reason entitled to consider itself of higher +caste than agricultural nations. + +Hence the tumescent city as one of the most alarming appearances of +our time. + +Hence, also, that idea of economic necessity, which, getting control +of the political mind of Europe, inevitably involved the world in a +machine-war. What made that war so terrifying, so destructive, so +extensive, was the power of the machine—an inconceivable power except +as it disclosed itself from day to day. No one beholding the event from +a firmamental point of view could have supposed it was a war between +races of men. Man in contrast with the machines he served was pitifully +insignificant. + +In Germany the task of bending the country’s industrial equipment to +the uses of war was assigned to a man who possessed one of the very +brilliant Jewish minds in the world. In him were combined the three +high characteristics of his race, which are loyalty, intellectual +realism, and dreaming imagination. His practical job was more complex +than that of the Chief of Staff. Yet his mind was not wholly occupied +with this care. His critical faculties and his imagination were always +free. + +Reflecting on the economic meaning of the war, he was led to examine +the essential character of international trade, and so perceived +clearly how wasteful, preposterous, and dangerous a great deal of it +was—Germany pressing the surplus product of her machines for sale in +Great Britain, the British doing likewise in Germany, both competing +at home and abroad with the industrial surplus of the United States, +ships passing on the seas with cargoes of similar goods endlessly +duplicated, and all the machine-craft nations seeking peasant-nations +to be exploited for food in exchange for manufactures. It was true in +this way the world had been growing richer in things, and yet the cost +was frightful. The resort to force was a confession that international +trade was bankrupt in reason and understanding. + +He was competent to reach a conclusion standing himself at the head of +one of Europe’s great industries. And he made a dream. It was that, +when the war had come to an end and people were themselves again, they +would see the vital importance to civilization of dividing among them +the work of the world agreeably to their special aptitudes and the +facts of environment—those to produce a surplus of whatever it was +they had a genius for making and the materials ready; these others +another kind of thing in which their skill and situation gave them an +advantage; and so on through the whole series of natural and artificial +things with which human wants are satisfied. Thus duplication and +strife would be eliminated. Not only would there be enough of +everything: from the elimination of senseless waste in private and +public war there would be a saving of power and capital sufficient to +water all the deserts of the earth and recreate man’s vistas here. + +As a dream, it was most alluring. As a plan it was worthless, for it +contained two fatal assumptions, namely, that you could always find a +Solomon to administer it and that people would submit to the benevolent +tyranny of his wisdom. He himself was destined by his end to illustrate +how people really behave. Shortly after the close of the war he was +murdered in the name of fanatic nationalism. + +It was a sign. + +The war released a flood of repressed passions in nationalism. +Great and small groups of submerged people asserted rights of +self-determination and clothed themselves with frontiers and +nationhood. Nearly all of these, together also with old countries +whose character until then had been agricultural, were concurrently +seized with the thought of economic independence—that is to say, with +the thought of having machines and industries of their own, for they +had seen a new thing. Industrial nations and none other were powerful +in the world. Nations without machines were helpless, subject, in fact, +to those that had them. + +Enormously stimulated in its function of reproduction by the onset of +this human idea, the machine broke bounds. No one now has any control +of it. + +Only a few years ago Great Britain alone controlled it. She had a +monopoly of its power and use by right of having been the first to +develop it, and she was for a while the only nation having a large +surplus of manufactures to sell in foreign countries. Then came +Germany, France, and Belgium. Of these Germany was Great Britain’s most +aggressive rival, making nearly all of the same things and most of them +cheaper. After 1870 the United States developed industry very fast +but for twenty years more her exports were principally agricultural +because she herself consumed the entire product of her machines, +besides importing manufactured goods from Europe in exchange for meat +and grain and raw cotton. It was not until about 1890 that American +machine-products began to invade the markets of the world in a large +way. And at about the same time Japan appeared as an industrial nation, +having in a few years equipped herself with Western machines and +trained her imitative hand to mind them. + +Such, roughly, was the economic state of the world at the outbreak of +the War. The powerfully industrialized nations were four in Europe, +counting little Belgium; one in the West; and one in the East—six +altogether, representing hardly more than one-fifth of the world’s +total population. + +If we regard only the countries where the industrial population had so +outrun the native food-supply that the sale of manufactures in foreign +lands to pay for food had either become, or was believed to be, a vital +transaction, then we count out the United States. This country is still +self-nourished. That leaves only five, and the competition among these +five for markets, for colonies, and heathen tribes to be instructed +in wanting, for private pathways by land and sea to the sources of +food, for access to the raw materials required by their machines, was +already desperate and dangerous. Between two of them it was deadly. + +Even then it was so. Since then the machine has multiplied tremendously +where its habitat was and has gone migrating, besides, all over the +earth. + +In those six countries that were already intensively industrialized +what appears? Their machine equipment has greatly increased. During the +War it increased for obvious reasons. God was on the side of the most +machines. Since the War it has continued to increase for other reasons. +One reason was peculiar to Germany. There the building of furnaces, +factories, and machine-works by a dynastic method, as the pyramids were +built, without credit or gold, simply by command of the industrialists +over labour and material, was a way of baffling the Allied creditors. +Another reason was peculiar to France. Restoring the industries of the +devastated regions meant building them a second time, since they had +been already once reproduced elsewhere in France during the War. But +the reason over all lay in that fixed idea of economic necessity, not +changed in the least by anything that had happened, only now more +desperate than ever, owing both to the intensified competition of the +older countries among themselves and to the spread of the machine into +other countries. + +How the competition among themselves has been intensified may +be illustrated in the case of textiles as between Great Britain +and France. Before the War both imported raw cotton and exported +fabrications of cotton; but, whereas Great Britain exported principally +the cotton cloth of universal commerce, France exported special +products representing her genius for style and artistry. Now, however, +having made large additions to her general textile equipment, France +feels obliged to compete directly with Great Britain in cotton-cloth of +common commerce. To do this she must extend her foreign trade parallel +to Great Britain’s and divide the markets hitherto dominated by the +British. As with cotton-cloth, so with other manufactures, particularly +those of iron and steel, wherein France proposes to compete and is +equipped to compete with both Germany and Great Britain as never +before. Each step she takes in this direction augments her economic +necessity, for now almost the last thing you would expect to see in +France is taking place. The native population as a whole is static, but +its character is changing. The industrial part of it is growing; the +agricultural part is waning. People are deserting the fields to embrace +industrial life—to mind machines. In every city there is a housing +problem; public credit is employed to build small dwellings for the +wage-earners; yet in the country, two hours from Paris, you will see +houses empty and going to ruin, whole rural villages in the way to be +abandoned, vineyards perishing for want of care, fields going to grass +instead of grain. Their industrial power is rising; their agricultural +power is falling. Before the War they were, or might have been, +self-nourishing on their own soil like the people of the United States. +That precious security they cast away. In place of it they take on the +anxieties of empire. They must impose upon Morocco the blessings of +European civilization in order to have an outlet there for the surplus +of their machines. + +Dramatic are the migrations of the machine and not unlike the +migrations of natural species, men and beasts, in search of food. +The machine seeks either cheaper raw material or people to mind its +processes. + +There is Italy, with a population greater than that of France, growing +half-a-million a year. It is the most fecund race in Europe. Suddenly +the Italians wake up and are resolved upon an industrial career. +Before the War this thought was dim among them. In the crisis it took +shape. Since the War it has become an enthusiasm, and now smoke-towers +are rising very fast. Definitely they have turned their minds from +agriculture to industry, not merely in order that they may become +self-supplied with manufactures instead of buying them from other +countries with lemons and olive oil, but in order to grow rich and +powerful in foreign trade. They propose hereafter and progressively to +exchange machine-wares for food. Italy will be a formidable rival for +Great Britain, Germany, France, and Belgium, who are already beginning +to feel it. + +Poland perceives her destiny to be industrial: she has already a large +surplus of manufactured goods to sell. Likewise Czechoslovakia. +These are instances of new countries. Spain and Greece are importing +machinery, and Spain is so anxious to develop industry that she +considers paying a bounty out of the public treasury on exports of +textiles. India, whose historic economic function had been to send +raw cotton to Great Britain and buy cotton cloth from Manchester, +now consumes half her own raw cotton in her native mills; she not +only satisfies three-quarters of her own want for cotton cloth but +is beginning actually to export that commodity, even to the United +States. This will seem very wasteful, indeed, when you pause to set +it against the historical background of the United States. For a long +time we exported raw cotton and imported cotton cloth. That was to have +been the pattern of our economic life as a British colony; we were to +produce only raw materials, ship them to Great Britain and buy from +her the surplus of her machines. We were forbidden, in fact, to weave +cloth for sale or to have iron mills. Now we are an industrial nation; +we consume more and more of our own raw cotton and export enormous +quantities of cotton cloth. Ultimately we shall have no raw cotton at +all to sell; our mills will require the whole of our annual crop; we +shall have nothing but cotton cloth to sell. To whom shall we sell it? +Not to the Indians; they wish to make their own. Probably not to the +Egyptians. The Japanese manufacturers of cotton goods have recently +invaded the Egyptian market that was formerly Great Britain’s own, and +are underselling the British there. You would think China would be +Japan’s natural outlet for cotton goods. So it is. The difficulty is +that Japan must be looking further because China is beginning to supply +herself. + +The Chinese instance is poignant. A few years ago—until the War, in +fact—China exported food and raw materials and imported manufactured +goods—nothing else to speak of either way. This was as the Western +industrial nations wished it to be. So anxious were they to have it +so that they bound China by treaty not to put tariff barriers against +the goods they wished to sell in the Chinese markets, except by mutual +consent—that is to say, with their consent. + +The War suspended this thraldom. The Chinese imported machines and +began to make their own things, especially cloth. Power-looms appeared +as by magic. And after the War, they continued to appear. During +three years after the War the number trebled, and in 1922, the table +of Chinese imports and exports presented a strange face. Among her +imports were machines and machine-parts; also semimanufactured goods to +be finished in Chinese factories. And one-fifth of her total exports +consisted of manufactured goods. China an exporter of machine products! + +And so up and down the earth. In Brazil, where there was hardly any +visible production of artificial things before 1914, the whole outlook +has changed. That country is now able from her own machines to meet +the whole of her want for matches, textiles, footgear, wallpaper, +phonograph-discs, hardware, hats, and playing cards, and will soon be +self-supplied with practically everything she needs. + +The Colonial System that was to have answered forever Great Britain’s +need for raw materials and food in exchange for machine-products will +not hold in that character. In India the revolt is political; elsewhere +it is peaceably economic. Canada is already powerfully machined; she +is exporting motor-cars. Australia, going in the same direction, +is beginning to export shoes. The Union of South Africa takes steps +to subsidize local industry. Ireland no sooner gains control of her +economic life than she puts a tariff-wall around herself to limit the +sale of foreign goods, meaning British goods as well, thinking thereby +to foster infant industries. + +Well, everyone now is doing that. The old industrial countries, too, +are protecting themselves against one another’s goods, the last to +come to it being Great Britain herself. For more than half-a-century +she was the protagonist of free trade, abhoring tariffs, because she +was paramount in machine-craft and could beat her rivals both in their +own markets and in her own. That advantage having departed from her, +she is driven to tariff-protection: she puts up barriers against other +people’s goods if they are too cheap, because they are too cheap, and +calls it Safeguarding Home Industries. + + + + +V + +THE PARADOX OF SURPLUS + + +What does it mean? Can there be too many desirable and useful things? +Can things be too cheap? You would say No. Surely, so long as any human +want remains unsatisfied, things cannot be either too plentiful or too +cheap? But there is another dimension. + +Everything that is not still or dead must exist in a state of rhythmic +tension. It is true of the plant, it is true of the animal, it is true +of each race of plants and each race of animals, it is true of the +kingdom of plants against the kingdom of animals. It is true of people, +as individuals, as races, as a species. And it is true, also, of the +machine. + +In the living organism growth of tissue at a normal rate consonant +with the rhythm is vital. A wild growth of that same tissue will be +fatal. In the aggregate of life there is equilibrium among millions +of different forms, each form striving but never succeeding and is +possessing every other form and taking the world. The oyster, if +unhindered, would displace every other living thing on the earth in +maybe ten generations, and then, of course, perish for want of space in +which to contain itself. What hinders the oyster and at the same time +preserves it is that principle of tension in nature, without which it +would be impossible for innumerable forms and varieties of life, the +relations of which to one another are reciprocal, neutral, hostile, +anonymous, to exist together all in one great taut pattern. + +Now regard the third kingdom, artificial, implanted with mechanical +beasts, that contains civilization. Life in this environment is +economic. Its characteristic behaviour is a progressive differentiation +of labour. Tasks are divided and subdivided until, at length, there are +countless separate groups of people, each one performing a singular +function to which it is trained and tending to become unable to perform +any other. The subdivisions are beyond enumeration. They multiply so +fast that the book of the census cannot keep up with them. + +The shoe-industry, for example, does not consist in shoemakers. You +might search it in vain for a shoemaker—that is, one who should know +how to raise a pair of shoes from flat leather. In the shoe factory the +material passes through a train of machines. Each machine is minded by +an operative who performs one little specialized part of the work in +endless repetition. The product is shoes by thousands of gross. + +But who determines what kinds of shoe and how many shoes shall be made? +What becomes of them when they are made? Who knows they can be sold? +What if they are not saleable? + +If you address these questions to one of the operatives minding a +machine you will find him dumb. He knows only his own function. + +It is very complicated. There are two industries here. One is the +shoe-industry; the other is the shoe-machine industry. One could not +exist without the other, yet they are separate and very unlike. The +shoe-industry itself, that has dispensed with shoemakers, will have +a finance department, an economic department, a buying department, a +department of production science, a style and designing department, a +chemical department, a department of distribution, a sales department, +an advertizing department, and others we do not think of. It is all +about shoes. These are all shoe people. They agglomerate in shoe towns. +They think shoes. The world is a foot. The more it can be shod the +better. They live by shoes. + +But to do this they must be able to exchange shoes for the things +they want. Shoes, therefore, must have a relation of value to every +other thing in the economic world. It follows that, in order to have +this exchange-value, shoes must have also a relation of quantity to +all other things. If for any reason the production of shoes becomes +suddenly abnormal that exchange-value is lost. It is like one kind +of tissue growing wild in the organism. Shoes are necessary; but an +excessive quantity cannot be absorbed by the economic body. There will +be in that case a morbid pathology in the shoe-industry, unemployment +in the shoe town, despair among the shoe people, many of whom have +never learned to do anything else. Left to themselves, without shoes to +make, they might even starve. + +It may be in the same way a soap town, a textile town, a garment town, +an iron town, a motor town like Detroit, a rubber-tire town like Akron, +a furniture town like Grand Rapids. It may be all of these—that is to +say, industry as a whole, increasing its output at an abnormal rate. As +you project the thought you begin to see, first, the vital importance +of rhythm, equilibrium, tension, in the realm of industry, and then the +inverse meaning of a sudden competitive increase in the machine-power +of the world. + +Ask the Italians what it means. They are an old people coming to +it with a fresh mind. The conversation that follows took place in +February, 1925. Talking are, on one side, the Italian Minister of +Finance, and on the other, a visiting journalist: + +“The industrial idea is new in Italy. It is since the War. You had a +clean slate. You could have done anything you had the imagination to +do. First you might have made a scientific survey of Italy’s latent +genius and resources, and then you might have thought of producing +goods that should be uniquely Italian and therefore non-competitive. +But what have you done? You have gone in for the great staples of +world commerce, such as cotton and woollen textiles, artificial silk, +and motor-cars. Don’t you see that in doing this you take on the +competition of Great Britain, Germany, France, Belgium, the United +States?” + +“Yes, we see that.” + +“Those countries have the field and the experience and better access +than Italy to sources of raw material.” + +“That we know, also.” + +“Then how can you hope successfully to compete with them? What have you +that they have not? What advantage against theirs?” + +“One you haven’t thought of.” + +“What is it?” + +“A man can live on less in Italy than anywhere else. We don’t know why +that is. It may be the way the sun shines on him. But it is a fact. +That is our advantage. With that we shall succeed.” + +“Do you realize what that means? You are saying that Italy proposes to +found an industrial career on the lowest terms of human existence. Your +people will not accept it.” + +“But they will.” + +“How do you know they will?” + +“Because they will do anything sooner than starve.” + +What a finish for the morning hope of the machine-age!—if it were. +Monotonous tending of the machine on the lowest standard of living; +alternative, starvation. + +Suppose it were true. Suppose the Italian people did accept the terms +and acquired the knack and skill. Then Italian manufactures, being +cheaper than any other, would sweep the markets of the world. The older +industrial nations—Great Britain, Germany, France, the United States, +_et al._—could protect their domestic markets by tariff-barriers, +but they would find themselves losing their foreign markets to the +Italians. For such industrial countries as are obliged to exchange a +machine-surplus abroad for food the loss of foreign markets would be +fatal. They would have to meet the Italian competition. They would +have to say, as the Italians now are saying: “It is that or starve.” +They would have to let down the standard of living to meet Italy’s +wage-cost. This would oblige Italy to make her standard lower still, +and thus, in a cycle, until all of them were sunk in misery. + +And this is by no means an impossible progression of events. It has +once taken place on a lesser scale. Beginning about 1870, there was +a sudden and uncontrollable increase in the output of industry from +two principal causes. One was the rapid rise of competitive industry +in Germany and the United States; the other—much more potent—was the +discovery of a new and cheaper way of making steel. This one discovery +transformed the aspect of industry by increasing its potential power as +much, perhaps, as one-hundred fold. Until then people spoke of the iron +age; after that it was the steel age. For a quarter of a century prices +fell continuously, while solemn economic bodies sat pondering the +phenomenon. In that time all the capital employed in industry was lost +at least once, probably twice or three times. The producer’s only hope +was to improve his machines and increase production, for as he did that +his cost per unit fell and for a little while he could undersell his +competitor. In methods of production and in the efficiency of machines +there was necessarily amazing progress; nevertheless, when all other +means of reducing costs had failed, it had to be taken out of labour. +In the United States it was not so bad because here the domestic +demand for manufactures was unlimited, and a tariff-wall protected +industry from foreign competition. In Germany it was very bad. + +Germany then was where Italy now is. Her advantage was that the +German people would work harder and longer for less money than the +British. The competition was between these two. The British Government, +disturbed by her new rival’s success in foreign trade, made a study of +labour conditions in Germany. It found Sunday labour very prevalent in +the factories. “Only the hours of divine service are excluded”, said a +report from Saxony. + +Commenting, _The_ (London) _Economist_ said: “The question of Sunday +labour is one of considerable interest for England, for it is +unquestionable that among the causes of Germany’s ability to compete +with England as a mercantile and industrial country the fact that here +more hours are worked for less money is not the least important. The +prohibition of Sunday labour would, of course, mean increased cost of +production, and every increase in the cost of production will render it +more difficult for Germany to outrival older manufacturing countries +in the markets of the world.” + +What might have happened does not detain us. What did happen was very +fortunate. + +First, the food-supply from free virgin land in North and South +America increased at the same time in a prodigious manner, so that, +notwithstanding the wild energy of the machine, the equilibrium between +agriculture and industry was fairly well maintained. + +Second, there was still room in the world for colonial development on +a vast scale. This occurred, and the outlets thereby created for the +surplus product of machines were most timely. + +Third—and this is very important—finance, to save itself from deluge, +got control of industry. It was unable to buy industry out. All the +banks in the world had not money enough to do that. This apparently +insuperable difficulty it solved in a simple manner. It formed industry +by groups into great joint-stock corporations and sold the stock to +the public. And, although generally finance did not keep control +in a literal sense, it did so centre it as to make the management +responsive thereafter to financial counsel. The classic instance in the +United States was the formation of the Steel Trust, which was in very +earnest a measure of desperation. The steel-making machine had become a +demon whose pastime was panic. By this feat of finance, which occurred +in all industrial countries, a new rhythm was established. It was most +imperfect: absolute control of production was impossible. But panics +from overproduction were thereafter episodic, not continuous, and this +was a great improvement. + +And now a second time the machine has got away. But how much more +powerful it is and widely planted than before. The industrial capacity +of the United States alone is greater than that of all Europe +twenty-five years ago. There are no more such virgin continents as +North and South America to be exploited for food; and, besides, +countries that were then content to play an agricultural part, +exchanging meat and grain and raw materials for machine-made wares, +now are resolved to have industries of their own—nay! more, to have an +industrial surplus for sale abroad, engaging in that game themselves. +Colonies are no longer docile. And as to finance, there is little +probability that it will be able again to lay its hand upon the +throttle. There are several reasons why. + +The significance of industry has changed. Formerly it was a private +affair in which the State was but dimly concerned, and so concerned +only in a social sense, whereas now the idea of industry is basically +political. It associates with thoughts of security independence in +all circumstances, national welfare, power, and grandeur. A factory +is like a ship to be privately enjoyed in time of peace, subject to +mobilization for war. The War did that. Great Britain now subsidizes +so-called key-industries as before she subsidized ships under the eye +of the Admiralty if they were so built as to be easily converted into +cruisers. All this is beyond the control of finance. + +For another reason, there are signs that industry in the future is more +likely to command finance than finance is to dominate industry. + +By finance it shall be understood that we mean organized influence—in +short, banking. Its occult authority has been seriously impaired. The +high day of its priestcraft is gone. + +Formerly it was consulted in war. You could not manage a war without a +gold-chest: it was the banker who said whether that could be filled or +not. Now one of the first steps you take in case of war is to suspend +the bank, declare a moratorium, and print paper money to pass from hand +to hand. + +When the World-War started it was the opinion of finance that it could +not last above ninety days: it could not be financed beyond that limit. +It lasted four years and did not stop then for want of money. + +After the War international finance was morally powerless to prevent +the colossal mark swindle, Germany printing and selling all over the +earth billions of paper marks that were to be flatly repudiated. Nor +was it able to visit the slightest penalty upon the authors of this +financial enormity, for immediately afterwards it was obliged, on +political grounds, to float a large gold loan for Germany and thereby +restore her to solvency and credit. In Germany finance was unable +to prevent the industrial dynasts from appropriating to themselves +all the middle-class wealth that was invested in bonds, mortgages, +annuities, and savings banks: they simply borrowed it and then paid it +back in worthless paper money. + +It is very significant this humiliation of finance. In situations where +the political will is dominant and in those where economic forces act +alone the omens are the same. Henry Ford is the extraordinary instance +of an industrialist who proceeds without benefit of finance. He creates +his capital as he goes along; what he does not create he commands. He +does not borrow. + + + + +VI + +IN PERIL OF TRADE + + +So now what will happen? From the excessive power already existing +to produce industrial commodities, from the continued increase of +that power nevertheless for political and national reasons, from the +raising of trade-barriers by one nation against another because every +one fears the effect upon its own industries of receiving cheap goods +from another, from this running of people out of the fields to tend +more machines, from the amazing growth of urban tissue in the economic +body—from all of this what follows? + +The Italians suggest a bitter competition in terms of living, those +to survive who will accept most patiently and at the lowest wage the +drudgery of minding machines. That might go rather far; ultimately it +comes to absurdity. To whom at last should they sell their goods? Not +to the impoverished workers of other industrial countries, defeated +in the struggle. To whom else? To the agricultural countries? But +these, for the reasons we have seen, are tending as such to disappear. +They are buying machines. Italy brings nothing to the solution. She is +merely coming tardily to do what others have done to excess. + +A brilliant Belgian economist suggests that only the most efficient +equipment will survive, and only enough of that to satisfy the natural +demand for goods. All the rest must be abandoned because there will +be no profit in working it. Well, it remains to be seen if people +will abandon their machines without a struggle, purely for rational +reasons. Much more is it likely that the higher cost of working the +less efficient equipment will be compensated by a lower wage-rate, +unemployment being the workers’ alternative. Moreover, if all the +inefficient and unnecessary machines were scrapped that would mean only +postponement of the sequel. The competition would begin all over again. + +There are those who suggest that we are facing toward the mercantile +system of the Middle Ages, when it was the custom for each nation +jealously to protect its home-market from the competitive handicrafts +of other nations, and to prohibit or punitively tax the exportation +of raw material to rival countries. So we are. To say it is merely to +indicate the rock upon which, if nothing happens, the ship of trade is +bound to wreck herself. + +A growing light on the actions of trade as it is organized by the +industrial powers now impels nations hitherto agricultural to found +industries of their own. As producers of foodstuffs and raw materials +to be exchanged for machine-products they came to have a sense of +being exploited. In academic theory this was an exchange by which the +industrial nation satisfied its food wants and the agricultural nation +its industrial wants, to mutual advantage. But how came the industrial +nation also to acquire wealth by the transaction? Performing the +preferred industrial task, it got not only its food but a profit over. +What else could it mean but that after a series of years the industrial +nation should come to have large interest-bearing investments in the +agricultural country, owning its railroads, tramways, water works, and +banks? What else could it mean but that the richest country in foreign +investments was the one that had been for the longest time engaged in +exchanging the surplus product of its machines for the food and raw +materials of other countries? How was it that those other countries, +after having served her for many years with food and raw materials, +invariably owed her a great deal of money? Or, if you approach it +from the other point of view, you find in the economic literature of +industrial nations a certain finished doctrine, which is that the +exchange of manufactured goods for food and raw materials is a business +that pays. It is not primarily a vital transaction. It becomes vital +by extension—that is to say, when in the course of time the industrial +population has increased beyond the native food supply. But in the +beginning the motive is gain. Nakedly, it is an exchange of skilled +labour for unskilled labour, to the enrichment of the former; it is a +division of labour among nations on a kind of caste plan. + +There is much to be said for it. In no other way could civilization +have been spread so fast; by no other method could the world have +become so rich in a few years. There was much to be said, also, for +piracy. It diffused, manners, customs, and wealth; it made peoples +acquainted with one another; it made a flat world round and laid the +foundations of modern commerce. In the modern case all difficulty +begins when the peoples to whom the less profitable tasks have been +allotted become intelligently dissatisfied and resolve to change their +status, as the American colonists did, as the Japanese did, as now all +lusty nations are doing, last of all the Chinese. + +Modern trade evolved from piracy. There was a time when all transfer of +goods between nations was by joyous might. It is pleasant to believe +that the cause of the decline of piracy was a rise in the moral sense +of mankind. It is more likely to have been the other way—that as piracy +declined for rational reasons rules to govern commercial conduct became +necessary. To enforce the rules became everyone’s duty. To break them +was punishable. From this would germinate a moral sense. Piracy was +bound to fail. On a large scale, continuous and competitive, it simply +was not feasible. Competition ruined it. + +There was a marginal time in which one was either pirate or trader, +agreeably to circumstance. The early Greek in his dangerous ship never +knew which he was; nor did anyone else. He took when the taking was +good; when it was not, he bartered. The Romans finally abolished piracy +in the Mediterranean, but on the high seas it was the great romantic +enterprize down to a very recent time. Some of its heroes are venerated +as daring navigators, pathbreakers of empire. It takes some effort to +remember that trees are still standing that were already old when the +world was a place where finding was keeping. If what you found was in +the possession of savages or heathens, you exchanged for it the hope of +civilization, maybe a few glass beads. Toward the end, this wonderful +business began to be hedged about with restrictions. You had to be +careful not to take anything forcibly from people who had treaties of +amity with your own country, for if you did they made trouble for you +at home, diplomatically, and you might even be hanged at the end of an +otherwise glorious voyage. + +But if you swindled them in trade, that was all right. Naturally, the +first theory of trade was to give the least and get the most. There +was else no point to it. + +The significance of trade has fundamentally changed in our time. What +was a private adventure has become a national necessity, vital to the +existing form of the principal industrial states of the world. And yet +that first rude theory of it, representing the step from piracy to +commerce, universally survives. This, at last, is the crucial fact. + +It has been impossible to part with the notion that there must be gain +in trade—a profit on one side beyond the mutual satisfaction of unlike +wants with unlike goods. Hence the term, balance of trade, meaning +the balance in your favour, or against you, from the transactions of +commerce. The rule is that the industrial nations come out each year +with a balance in their favour. The countries with whom they have been +exchanging machine-made goods for food and raw materials owe them +money. This simply means that the industrial nations charge more for +what they sell than they pay for what they buy. Hence the gain. That is +how they get rich. It is more than a rule: it is the very principle of +trade; and if you say there is any other principle the commercial mind +becomes instantly stark. What would activate trade if not the hope of +gain? + +Nevertheless, trade on that principle is bound to fail, as piracy +failed, and for the same practical reason. On a vast scale, with +unlimited participation, it is not continuously feasible. Every nation +cannot have a favourable trade-balance. So long as three or four +nations had a monopoly of machines and machine-craft, it could be +managed; it could even assume such colossal proportions as to create +the illusion of being permanent as the way of the world. That monopoly +is broken. The machine is increasingly a common possession. Its power +is dispersed, and there is much new and unbidden ecstasy in the +exercise of it. And whereas it was that a few nations exploited many, +what now opens to view is the prospect of all nations simultaneously +engaged in the effort to exploit one another. Every frontier a trade +wall. Each nation forbidding others to do unto it that which it is +bent upon doing to them. So we return to the middle of the sixteenth +century, no wiser than the British were when the Parliament voted _An +Act Avoiding Divers Foreign Wares Made by Handicraftsmen Beyond the +Seas_ (_5 Eliz. c. 7, Statutes of the Realm, Vol. IV, Part I, pp. +428-429), 1562_. It reads: + + Whereas heretofore the artificers of this realm of England (as well + within the city of London as within other cities, towns, and boroughs + of the same real) that is to wit, girdlers, cutlers, saddlers, + glovers, point-makers, and such like handicraftsmen, have been in the + said faculties greatly wrought, and greatly set on work, as well for + the sustentation of themselves, their wives, and families, as for a + good education of a great part of the youth of this realm in good art + and laudible exercise: + + Yet notwithstanding so now it is, that by reason of the abundance of + foreign wares brought into this realm from the parts of beyond the + seas, the said artificers are not only less occupied, and thereby + utterly impoverished, the youth not trained in the said sciences and + exercises, and thereby the said faculties and the exquisite knowledges + thereof like in short time within this realm to decay; but also divers + cities and towns within this realm of England much thereby impaired, + the whole realm greatly endamaged and other countries greatly enriched. + + For reformation whereof, be it enacted by our sovereign lady the + Queen’s Highness, and by the Lords Spiritual and Temporal, and the + Commons of this present parliament assembled and by the authority of + the same, that no person or persons whatsoever, from or after the + feast of the Nativity of St John Baptist now next ensuing, shall bring + or cause to be brought into this realm of England from the parts of + beyond the seas, any girdles, harness for girdles, rapiers, daggers, + knives, hilts, pummels, lockets, chapes, dagger-blades, handles, + scabbards, and sheaths for knives, saddles, horseharness, stirrups, + bits, gloves, points, leather laces, or pins, being ready made or + wrought in any parts of beyond the seas, to be sold, bartered, or + exchanged within this realm of England or Wales; upon pain to forfeit + all such wares so to be brought contrary to the true meaning of this + act, in whose hands soever they or any of them shall be found, on the + very value thereof. + +Shall it be either this again, or from a universal war of +machine-competition the survival of one titanic industrial nation +with a monopoly of foreign trade and the might to force its surplus +goods on other people’s markets? That nation would fall in time and +not altogether from its own weight. It would, of course, abuse its +power; but, moreover, it would be unable to collect its favourable +trade-balances from all the rest of the world. + +Logical extremes are fictions of thought. It is always another thing +that happens. The one impossibility is for trade to wear in its present +character. It has come to the end of its theory, witness the dread with +which European statesmen, economists, and industrialists regard the +payment of German reparations. How shall Germany pay? In goods. There +is no other way. She cannot pay in gold. There is not that much gold +in the whole world. The Allied creditors actually lend her a little +gold in order that she may recover from her amazing act of bankruptcy +and get back to the way of producing exportable wealth. But to whom +shall she deliver her goods, or sell them? Great Britain does not want +them. Her anxiety is how to keep her own factories going. They make +the same goods. France does not wish them, nor Belgium, nor Italy, nor +the United States, and all for the same reason. They have a potential +surplus of industrial commodities from their own machines. Then shall +Germany sell her goods in other markets and turn the money proceeds +over to Great Britain, France, _et al_? But they themselves need those +other markets on which to sell their own industrial products. German +competition is not wanted there. Thus an _impasse_. + +If, in desperation, the Allied creditors forgave Germany her reparation +debt, or so much of it as she should be obliged to pay in competitive +goods, that would be still worse. For Germany would then compete in +those other markets on her own initiative and keep the profit. And all +the time those other markets, in Asia, Africa, South America, tend to +become less and less exploitable because they belong to people who +have begun to found industries of their own and are in the way to be +natively supplied with manufactures. + + + + +VII + +DIM VISTAS NEW + + +It must occur to you that what the world requires to find is a new +conception of commerce among nations—one that shall be free of the +predatory impulse, above the exploiting motive, competitive in some +nobler sense. It need not be magnanimous or unselfish—not yet; but only +enlightened enough to comprehend the latter meaning of events. + +For a superseding principle the perfect pattern is represented in +nature, where you see dissimilar organisms existing together in a state +of symbiosis, one sustaining the other, vitally interdependent, yet +neither exploiting the other. + +There is no accrual of advantage to one side, no gain, no favourable +balance of trade. One gives exactly as much as it receives and two +wants are equally satisfied, with nothing to boot either way. + +This is very different from parasitism, which is one-sided, for gain +only. And there is a very curious suggestion that organisms now +existing together in a state of permanent symbiotic union were once +parasitic and learned better. + +It cannot be supposed that nations will ever deliberately substitute a +principle of mutualism for the principle of gain in trade. They could +not if they would. Those that have the advantage must fight for it to +the end. Commerce itself, if you look to it, is a complex structure +of growth for which there is nowhere any original accountability. It +cannot change its philosophy, any more than a tree, for it has none. It +has instead a vital instinct for opportunity and a flexible way with +necessity and circumstance. There is no hope of its being reformed +ideally by mass intelligence. The conglomerate mind is irresponsibly, +impersonally selfish; it cannot act without experience. There is no +experience of peoples sustaining one another on a sympathetic plan, +each willing to give as much as it takes, with no balance favourable or +unfavourable to be settled in gold or debt. This has never happened. +It is an idea only. + +But if now we move our point of view from the centre to the +circumference, we shall see already taking place, with the force +of natural events, momentous alterations in the scheme of economic +life—one of decay and one of revaluation. + +We witness almost unawares the ruin of that classic enterprise of +empire which is founded upon the theory of a balance of trade and a +division of labour whereby the colonies, the dominions, the subject and +mandated peoples are hewers, drawers, and food-bringers, serving those +who live in cities, practise machine-craft, and think themselves wholly +benevolent. + +The machine has betrayed it. Nothing more unexpected has occurred +since the discovery of a simple chemical reaction that was to destroy +the privileged warrior-caste among mankind. When a splendid knight in +armour was powerless against the peasant with a musket and a knight +with a musket no better than a peasant, the romantic profession of arms +was doomed. Gunpowder ended the age of chivalry. Ultimate military +power passed to the people. + +And now for hundreds of millions of people hitherto inferior in +status the machine is a symbol of liberation, freedom, independence, +recognition, racial power. Japan is the thrilling example in Asia. Did +it not deliver her from a thraldom imposed by the Western Powers in +the interest of their own trade? Did it not make her in one generation +their equal, a nation to be feared? Certainly for these reasons use and +possession of the machine will increase in the world beyond any natural +economic ratio, and both the power and profit of empire will cease. + +The other alteration, already beginning to be visible though not yet +adequately understood, is a change in the value of food. Three causes +henceforth will be operating together to make food dear. First, as +cities continue to grow and the industrial population of the earth +continues to augment faster than the agricultural population, the need +to import food will be always greater; second, the exportable surplus +of food will be always less because as the agricultural and low-craft +nations progress toward their ideal of industrial independence they +will consume more and more of their own food products; and third, the +supply of those industrial commodities that are exchanged for food will +enormously increase. + +In the language of the economist, the agricultural index will rise and +the industrial index will fall. It will require a greater quantity of +manufactures to buy a bushel of wheat; fewer bushels of wheat to buy +a manufactured article. This will not be for one year or two. It will +be lasting. It will affect the status of great groups and classes of +people. In the cities and industrial centres the cost of living will +move in a vertical manner. + +The difficulties of food-importing countries may, almost certainly +will, become desperate. The people of Great Britain, for example, +will pay dearly for the wealth they have amassed by industry in the +last seventy-five years. If the value of food, priced in British +machine-wares, should double, then for the same quantity of food as +before they would have to give twice the quantity of manufactured +goods, which would mean twice as much labour and no more to eat. The +same difficulties will beset all countries not self-contained in food. +They will exhort their people to return to the fields, which the people +will be loth to do, having tasted cities. They will expect their +governments to make food cheaper by edict, or to buy it out of taxation +and distribute it gratis. Moreover, in some countries, taking again the +case of Great Britain as notable, there may not be enough land. The +people perhaps could not feed themselves no matter how intensively they +worked their fields, industry having multiplied the population beyond +the utmost potentiality of a native food supply. Obviously indicated is +a movement of dispersal together with a limitation upon the increase +of industrial population. More power will pass to countries, like the +United States, Canada, Brazil, and Australia, that have the advantage +of enormous food-reserves. Their problems will be internal. + +None of this can happen without much blind and violent resistance. +But, of course, it will not happen all at once, not all in one place, +nor in every case with a clear meaning. And it is not certain that any +amount of experience, however painful, will bring nations to adopt what +we have called a symbiotic principle of commerce with one another. +There is at first the danger that agriculture in its turn will exploit +industry as industry has exploited peasantry and that those who possess +or control resources of food and raw materials will hold them too dear, +thereby taking the industrial nations into their debt or provoking them +to insane measures. + +Thus the opportunity to go forward might be lost in passion. The fate +of retrogression is possible. This has happened many times. It is much +less probable than ever before, however, for many reasons that seem +permanent. When knowledge was a precious torch borne aloft by a few +hands through storm and stress, it was easily quenched. Then darkness. +You can hardly imagine destruction of the existing body of science, +technology, and fact-knowledge. The mass of it is too great to be lost. + +That, of course, has nothing to do with wisdom. By knowledge alone man +might extinguish himself utterly. But to suppose that he will not find +a new way to go on with, that he will either move the old struggle to +new ground or return to medievalism, is to believe there is no law of +human progress. + +The probability is that he will find the way unknowingly, by groping, +and will be well upon it before he has had time to formulate any clear +idea or theory of what he is doing. He will have found little by little +that it pays, better than any other way, not as he once understood +profit, but in terms of enduring satisfactions, which may include +peace. Critical understanding of it will come later with reflection, +and as it comes he will rid his mind of the phantasy in pursuit of +which he has made the world so much richer in things than in happiness. + +Seeing now only how relentlessly the curse pursued him still and how +the affliction of monotonous toil if it be lifted in one place is made +heavier in another, he is torn with a sense of frustration. But the +view is wrong—false to his first nature. He forgets the truth of his +own myth. Somewhere down the ages it got turned upside down. Once he +dwelt in the Garden of Eden, or supposed he did, and cared not for it. +He was bored there and beguiled to his fall. The figure at the gate +forbidding his return is a symbol of self-knowledge; it was set there +by his own forethought, lest he should be tempted to go back. + +If the machine with which he has believed himself to be storming a +childish wish ever brought him to a state of effortless ease on earth, +that would be his last. + +It may be a power he is yet morally unprepared to exercise. How strange +at least that with an incentive so trivial and naïve in itself he +should have been able to perform an absolute feat of creation! + +The machine was not. He reached his mind into emptiness and seized it. +Even yet he cannot realize what he has done. Out of the free elemental +stuff of the universe, visible and invisible, some of it imponderable, +such as lightning, he has invented a class of typhonic, mindless +organisms, exempt from the will of nature. + +We have no understanding of creation, its process or meaning. The +machine is the externalized image of man’s thoughts. It is furthermore +an extension of his life, for we perceive as an economic fact that +human existence in its present phase, on its present scale, could not +continue in its absence. And what are we ourselves, life to begin +with, if not an image of thought? Perhaps it is true as a principle of +creation that the image and its creator must co-exist, inseparably. + +In any light, man’s further task is Jovian. That is to learn how best +to live with these powerful creatures of his mind, how to give their +fecundity a law and their functions a rhythm, how not to employ them in +error against himself—since he cannot live without them. + + + + + _Each, pott 8vo, 2/6 net_ _Occasionally illustrated_ + +TO-DAY AND TO-MORROW + + +This series of books, by some of the most distinguished English +thinkers, scientists, philosophers, doctors, critics, and artists, was +at once recognized as a noteworthy event. Written from various points +of view, one book frequently opposing the argument of another, they +provide the reader with a stimulating survey of the most modern thought +in many departments of life. Several volumes are devoted to the future +trend of Civilization, conceived as a whole; while others deal with +particular provinces, and cover the future of Woman, War, Population, +Clothes, Wireless, Morals, Drama, Poetry, Art, Sex, Law, etc. + +It is interesting to see in these neat little volumes, issued at a low +price, the revival of a form of literature, the Pamphlet, which has +been in disuse for 200 years. + + + _Published by_ + KEGAN PAUL, TRENCH, TRUBNER & CO., LTD. + Broadway House: 68-74 Carter Lane, London, E.C.4 + + + + +TO-DAY AND TO-MORROW + + +_VOLUMES READY_ + + =Daedalus=, or Science and the Future. By J. B. S. HALDANE, Reader in + Biochemistry, University of Cambridge. _Sixth impression._ + +“A fascinating and daring little book.”—_Westminster Gazette._ +“The essay is brilliant, sparkling with wit and bristling with +challenges.”—_British Medical Journal._ + +“Predicts the most startling changes.”—_Morning Post._ + + =Callinicus=, a Defence of Chemical Warfare. By J. B. S. HALDANE. + _Second impression._ + +“Mr. Haldane’s brilliant study.”—_Times Leading Article._ “A book to be +read by every intelligent adult.”—_Spectator._ “This brilliant little +monograph.”—_Daily News._ + + =Icarus=, or the Future of Science. By BERTRAND RUSSELL, F.R.S. + _Fourth impression._ + +“Utter pessimism.”—_Observer._ “Mr. Russell refuses to believe that +the progress of Science must be a boon to mankind.”—_Morning Post._ +“A stimulating book, that leaves one not at all discouraged.”—_Daily +Herald._ + + =What I Believe.= By BERTRAND RUSSELL, F.R.S. _Second impression._ + +“One of the most brilliant and thought-stimulating little books I +have read—a better book even than _Icarus_.”—_Nation._ “Simply and +brilliantly written.”—_Nature._ “In stabbing sentences he punctures +the bubble of cruelty, envy, narrowness, and ill-will which those in +authority call their morals.”—_New Leader._ + + =Tantalus=, or the Future of Man. By F. C. S. SCHILLER, D.Sc., Fellow + of Corpus Christi College, Oxford. _Second impression._ + +“They are all (_Daedalus_, _Icarus_, and _Tantalus_) brilliantly +clever, and they supplement or correct one another.”—_Dean Inge_, in +_Morning Post_. “Immensely valuable and infinitely readable.”—_Daily +News._ “The book of the week.”—_Spectator._ + + =Cassandra=, or the Future of the British Empire. By F. C. S. + SCHILLER, D.Sc. + +“We commend it to the complacent of all parties.”—_Saturday Review._ +“The book is small, but very, very weighty; brilliantly written, +it ought to be read by all shades of politicians and students of +politics.”—_Yorkshire Post._ “Yet another addition to that bright +constellation of pamphlets.”—_Spectator._ + + =Quo Vadimus?= Glimpses of the Future. By E. E. FOURNIER D’ALBE, + D.Sc., author of “Selenium, the Moon Element,” etc. + +“A wonderful vision of the future. A book that will be talked +about.”—_Daily Graphic._ “A remarkable contribution to a remarkable +series.”—_Manchester Dispatch._ “Interesting and singularly +plausible.”—_Daily Telegraph._ + + =Hephaestus=, the Soul of the Machine. By E. E. FOURNIER D’ALBE, D.Sc. + +“A worthy contribution to this interesting series. A delightful and +thought-provoking essay.”—_Birmingham Post._ “There is a special +pleasure in meeting with a book like _Hephaestus_. The author has the +merit of really understanding what he is talking about.”—_Engineering._ + + =Lysistrata=, or Woman’s Future and Future Woman. By ANTHONY M. + LUDOVICI, author of “A Defence of Aristocracy”, etc. + +“A stimulating book. Volumes would be needed to deal, in the fullness +his work provokes, with all the problems raised.”—_Sunday Times._ +“Pro-feminine, but anti-feministic.”— _Scotsman._ “Full of brilliant +common-sense.”—_Observer._ + + =Hypatia=, or Woman and Knowledge. By MRS BERTRAND RUSSELL. With a + frontispiece. _Second impression._ + +An answer to _Lysistrata_. “A passionate vindication of the rights of +women.”—_Manchester Guardian._ “Says a number of things that sensible +women have been wanting publicly said for a long time.”—_Daily Herald._ +“Everyone who cares at all about these things should read it.”—_Weekly +Westminster._ + + =Thrasymachus=, the Future of Morals. By C. E. M. JOAD, author of + “Common-Sense Ethics,” etc. + +“His provocative book.”—_Graphic._ “Written in a style of deliberate +brilliance.”—_Times Literary Supplement._ “As outspoken and unequivocal +a contribution as could well be imagined. Even those readers who +dissent will be forced to recognize the admirable clarity with which he +states his case. A book that will startle.”—_Daily Chronicle._ + + =The Passing of the Phantoms=: a Study of Evolutionary Psychology and + Morals. By C. J. PATTEN, Professor of Anatomy, Sheffield University. + With 4 Plates. + +“Readers of _Daedalus_, _Icarus_ and _Tantalus_, will be grateful for +an excellent presentation of yet another point of view.”—_Yorkshire +Post._ “This bright and bracing little book.”— _Literary Guide._ +“Interesting and original.”—_Medical Times._ + + =The Mongol in our Midst=: a Study of Man and his Three Faces. By + F. G. CROOKSHANK, M.D., F.R.C.P. With 28 Plates. _Second Edition, + revised._ + +“A brilliant piece of speculative induction.”—_Saturday Review._ +“An extremely interesting and suggestive book, which will reward +careful reading.”—_Sunday Times._ “The pictures carry fearful +conviction.”—_Daily Herald._ + + =The Conquest of Cancer.= By H. W. S. WRIGHT, M.S., F.R.C.S. + Introduction by F. G. CROOKSHANK, M.D. + +“Eminently suitable for general reading. The problem is fairly and +lucidly presented. One merit of Mr. Wright’s plan is that he tells +people what, in his judgment, they can best do, _here and now_.”—From +the _Introduction_. + + =Pygmalion=, or the Doctor of the Future. By R. MCNAIR WILSON, M.D. + +“Dr Wilson has added a brilliant essay to this series.”—_Times Literary +Supplement._ “This is a very little book, but there is much wisdom in +it.”—_Evening Standard._ “No doctor worth his salt would venture to say +that Dr Wilson was wrong.”—_Daily Herald._ + + =Prometheus=, or Biology and the Advancement of Man. By H. S. + JENNINGS, Professor of Zoology, Johns Hopkins University. + +“This volume is one of the most remarkable that has yet appeared in +this series. Certainly the information it contains will be due to +most educated laymen. It is essentially a discussion of ... heredity +and environment, and it clearly establishes the fact that the current +use of these terms has no scientific justification.”—_Times Literary +Supplement._ “An exceedingly brilliant book.”—_New Leader._ + + =Narcissus=: an Anatomy of Clothes. By GERALD HEARD. With 19 + illustrations. + +“A most suggestive book.”—_Nation._ “Irresistible. Reading it is +like a switchback journey. Starting from prehistoric times we +rocket down the ages.”—_Daily News._ “Interesting, provocative, and +entertaining.”—_Queen._ + + =Thamyris=, or Is There a Future for Poetry? By R. C. TREVELYAN. + +“Learned, sensible, and very well-written.”—_Affable Hawk_, in _New +Statesman_. “Very suggestive.”—_J. C. Squire_, in _Observer_. “A very +charming piece of work. I agree with all, or at any rate, almost all +its conclusions.”—_J. St. Loe Strachey_, in _Spectator_. + + =Proteus=, or the Future of Intelligence. By VERNON LEE, author of + “Satan the Waster,” etc. + +“We should like to follow the author’s suggestions as to the effect of +intelligence on the future of Ethics, Aesthetics, and Manners. Her book +is profoundly stimulating and should be read by everyone.”—_Outlook._ +“A concise, suggestive piece of work.”—_Saturday Review._ + + =Timotheus=, the Future of the Theatre. By BONAMY DOBRÉE, author of + “Restoration Drama,” etc. + +“A witty, mischievous little book, to be read with delight.”—_Times +Literary Supplement._ “This is a delightfully witty book.”—_Scotsman._ +“In a subtly satirical vein he visualizes various kinds of +theatres in 200 years time. His gay little book makes delightful +reading.”—_Nation._ + + =Paris=, or the Future of War. By Captain B. H. LIDDELL HART. + +A companion volume to _Callinicus_. “A gem of close thinking and +deduction.”—_Observer._ “A noteworthy contribution to a problem of +concern to every citizen in this country.”—_Daily Chronicle._ “There is +some lively thinking about the future of war in _Paris_, just added to +this set of live-wire pamphlets on big subjects.”—_Manchester Guardian._ + + =Wireless Possibilities.= By Professor A. M. LOW. With 4 diagrams. + +“As might be expected from an inventor who is always so fresh, he has +many interesting things to say.”—_Evening Standard._ “The mantle of +Blake has fallen upon the physicists. To them we look for visions, and +we find them in this book.”—_New Statesman._ + + =Perseus=: of Dragons. By H. F. SCOTT STOKES. With 2 illustrations. + +“A diverting little book, chock-full of ideas. Mr. Stokes’ dragon-lore +is both quaint and various.”—_Morning Post._ “Very amusingly written, +and a mine of curious knowledge for which the discerning reader will +find many uses.”—_Glasgow Herald._ + + =Lycurgus=, or the Future of Law. By E. S. P. HAYNES, author of + “Concerning Solicitors,” etc. + +“An interesting and concisely written book.”—_Yorkshire Post._ “He +roundly declares that English criminal law is a blend of barbaric +violence, medieval prejudices, and modern fallacies.... A humane +and conscientious investigation.”—_T.P.’s Weekly._ “A thoughtful +book—deserves careful reading.”—_Law Times._ + + =Euterpe=, or the Future of Art. By LIONEL R. MCCOLVIN, author of “The + Theory of Book-Selection.” + +“Discusses briefly, but very suggestively, the problem of the future of +art in relation to the public.”—_Saturday Review._ “Another indictment +of machinery as a soul-destroyer ... a gloomy prospect, but Mr. Colvin +has the courage to suggest solutions.”—_Westminster Gazette._ “This is +altogether a much-needed book.”—_New Leader._ + + =Birth Control and the State=: a Plea and a Forecast. By C. P. + BLACKER, _M.C._, M.A., M.R.C.S., L.R.C.P. + +Just published. A discussion of the arguments for and against Birth +Control, considered from the personal, social, and international +aspects, and in its bearings upon the future. Summing up in its favour, +the author contends that the only adequate solution rests in the hands +of the medical profession throughout the world. + + =Atlantis=, or America and the Future. By Colonel J. F. C. FULLER. + +“Many hard things have been said about America, but few quite so +bitter and caustic as these.”—_Daily Sketch._ “The whole of America +as his subject. He can conjure up possibilities of a new Atlantis, +controlled by the gods; but he requires a few centuries for the +communication.”—_Clarion._ + + =Midas=, or the United States and the Future. By C. H. BRETHERTON, + author of “The Real Ireland,” etc. + +A companion volume to _Atlantis_. “Full of astute observations and +acute reflections ... this wise and witty pamphlet, a provocation to +the thought that is creative.”—_Morning Post._ “Packs a punch in every +paragraph. One could hardly ask for more ‘meat’.”—_Spectator._ + + =Nuntius=, or the Future of Advertising. By GILBERT RUSSELL. + +“Another booklet which looks wisely on the world of to-morrow. The +future of advertising is very sanely considered here. We are heartily +in agreement with the main thesis.”—_Spectator._ “A thoughtful little +book.”—_Daily Sketch._ + + =Pegasus=, or Problems of Transport. By Colonel J. F. C. FULLER, + author of “The Reformation of War,” etc. With 8 Plates. + +“The foremost military prophet of the day propounds a solution for +industrial and unemployment problems. It is a bold essay ... and calls +for the attention of all concerned with imperial problems.”—_Daily +Telegraph._ “With a broad imaginative grasp he finds the solution [of +unemployment] in ‘tracked’ vehicles.”—_Westminster Gazette._ + +“Right up to the high standard of the rest of this series.”—_Clarion._ + + +_READY SHORTLY_ + + =Artifex=, or the Future of Craftsmanship. By JOHN GLOAG, author of + “Time, Taste, and Furniture.” + +After a suggestive sketch of the history of craftsmanship, the +author examines the possibilities in the use of machinery to extend +craftsmanship and make beautiful articles of commerce. + + =Plato’s American Republic.= By J. D. WOODRUFF. + +A series of witty dialogues in the Platonic manner dealing with aspects +of American life and manners. + + =Sybilla=, or the Future of Prophecy. By C. A. MACE, University of St. + Andrew’s. + +An examination of the possibilities of scientific forecasting, with +special reference to certain volumes in this series. + + =Orpheus=, or the Future of Music. By W. J. TURNER, author of “Music + and Life.” + + +_IN PREPARATION_ + + =Ouroboros=, or the Mechanical Extension of Mankind. By GARET GARRETT. + +Machine civilization has filled the world with its products. What will +happen when markets are over-flooded? + + =Gallio=, or the Tyranny of Science. By J. W. N. SULLIVAN, author of + “A History of Mathematics.” + +An attack on the values which science is so successfully imposing upon +civilization. + + =Mercurius=, or the World on Wings. By C. THOMPSON WALKER. + +A brilliant picture of the world as it will be when inevitable +developments in aircraft take place. + + =The Future of the English Language.= By BASIL DE SÉLINCOURT, author + of “The English Secret,” etc. + +An analysis of the present condition of the English language and the +paths along which it is progressing. + + =The Future of Architecture.= By CHRISTIAN BARMAN, editor of “The + Architects’ Journal.” + +A survey of the condition of architecture and developments to be +expected in the future. + + =Delphos=, or the Future of International Language. By E. SYLVIA + PANKHURST. + + =Caliban=, or the Future of Industrial Capitalism. By HILAIRE BELLOC. + + =The Future of Futurism.= By JOHN RODKER. + + =The Future of Films.= By FRANCIS BETTS. + + + + + Transcriber’s Notes + + pg 33 Changed: It is a sympton of saturation + to: It is a symptom of saturation + + pg 37 Changed: costly piece of machinary to build + to: costly piece of machinery to build + + pg 58 Changed: It is true of people, as indivuals + to: It is true of people, as individuals + + pg 59 Changed: never succeeding ind is possessing + to: never succeeding and is possessing + + pg 65 Changed: For a quarter of a century prices feel continuously + to: For a quarter of a century prices fell continuously + + pg 65 Changed: while solemn ecomomic bodies + to: while solemn economic bodies + + pg 65 Changed: economic bodies sat pondering the phenomenom + to: economic bodies sat pondering the phenomenon + + pg 76 Changed: To enforce the rules bcame everyone’s duty + to: To enforce the rules became everyone’s duty + + pg 76 Changed: From this would germinate a moral sensel. + to: From this would germinate a moral sense. + + pg 81 Changed: whose hards soever they or any of them shall be found + to: whose hands soever they or any of them shall be found + + pg 83 Changed: much of it as she she should be obliged + to: much of it as she should be obliged + + pg 8 Changed: requires a few centuries for the communation + to: requires a few centuries for the communication + + + +*** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK 75418 *** |